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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  March 9, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EST

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euro. >> snails with your bratwurst -- >> that's my view. by the way, harrisburg, pennsylvania -- >> the dow is flatlining here. the nasdaq has also pared its gains with the s&p 500. >> thanks for watching, everybody. >> the "closing bell" is coming up next. have a great weekend. hi, everybody. happy friday to you. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bob pisani in for bill griffeth. stocks losing a bit of steam in the past few minutes, after greece defaulted, as expected. that just happened moments ago. we'll talk to an isda official in a few moments here. and we'll look at what's today's notes, what it might mean for investors. stocks on track for their best three-day run since february, tas marks the three-year anniversary of the multi-year
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lows since 2009. jobs report helped spark an earlier average. the dow jones industrial average just off its highs. as you can see there, we dropped, oh, maybe 30 points or so. as news came out just prior to 3:00 eastern time that there was a credit event in greece. take a look at the s&p 500. lost maybe three points. we were at 1273 or so. nasdaq also dropped there. put up the s&p 500. that's the key one here. we were at roughly 1273. now as you can see, excuse me, 1373, now at 1371. you see the little drop right there. maria? >> yeah, we certainly did see a significant move just in the last ten minutes or so, bob. what do you think this reaction is about? given the fact that we know that we had a very strong participation rate. we knew this was successful. and perhaps avoids an official, you know, unwanted default. but a negative reaction in the market. >> negative. but two points on the s&p 500 is a pretty modest reaction.
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>> of course. but look at that chart, bob. all the way down, in just a short period of time. >> we're at the end of the week. we've had a good week overall. you might get people looking for profits, to play this as an event, trying to put a little pressure on the market here. we dropped on the dow maybe 30 points. and how quickly we came back here. i still maintain this is well inside the market parameters. this two-point, three-point move in the s&p 500 not much of a big deal right now. >> as we approach that march 20th deadline for greece, of course, this is going to be front and center, with any headline, really, dictating the activity in the market. >> right now, thanks to the fact that this deal is happening, that march 20th deadline should pass and not be very eventful at this point. i think that's what this is all about right now. >> let's talk more about these times, and the hps regarding the greek default. we're joined by kelly evans, and steve liesman. good to see you both. so we did get the jobs numbers
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that were better than expected, kelly. what about the income and the paychecks? >> i want to point out as we're seeing increases in job gains over the last couple of months, income growth has been lagging. we're talking increases in hourlily earnings. we can see it in terms of growth and spending. >> steve, what do you think? what are you expecting this to translate into in the coming months? >> i look at it as a somewhat broader measure. i disagree with kelly a little bit. if i look at personal income, i look at the wage-to-salary component. growth to 4% year-on-year. we have about as good an income as we had back in the 2006 and '07 period. i'm not that worried about it. i think incomes are growing smartly here. >> we're looking at a real reaction in the market because of the news on greece. we actually saw stocks back up after the news.
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>> i have a number here, maria, that i'm trying to run down. i believe this covers only $3 billion of default and some 4,200 cds payments. the numbers actually contain, in terms of the total payout -- bob, did i hear you say you could confirm that number? >> the numbers this morning was $3.2 billion. but only half of them were actually covered by cdss, i believe. on that basis, it looks to me like this is not -- >> i think -- >> -- a great event in terms of some kind of a ripple effect in the global banking system. >> and bob, maybe you can speak to this, if the clauses weren't triggered, it would call into question the entire basis of the cds market. if greece is clearly not going to be able to meet those obligations, the cds should be triggered. >> in my view, this is relatively good news. the cds market lives another day. >> there's reality and perception, bob.
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this actual payout which seems to be con taptained and confine. but this is an issue for portugal, now it's an issue for spain and other countries. >> it's still an issue for greece. greece is still going to have an incredible difficult time meeting their bills going forward. the price of it still weight discounted. forget march 20th, we need to talk about what they're going to do for the next several years. >> that's true, kelly. but remember something, systemic risk has been reduced in the eurozone as a result of this. i didn't say it's been eliminated. >> mario draghi at the ecb -- >> that's what really reduced the urgency and took the urgency and liquidity issues off the table. >> but remember, there is going to be an escrow account set up here. the greeks will not have full control of that. it will go in the escrow account and pay off the bond holders over the years. but systemic risk has been reduced here. >> i agree with bob.
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>> anybody who didn't see this coming shouldn't be investing money. >> i hope that having seen this coming for so long, that really vulnerable players trimmed their exposure here, regulators were on top of these guys. i don't know why they went through such hoops to keep the cds from paying out. it seems you're either long the bond or long the cds or long the insurance. i don't know why the european governments were so scared about the cds paying out. >> if the cds never paid out and many people thought they might not, a lot of guys certainly would have no faith in the cds market, that's for sure. that would short the bonds. >> or why buy other sovereign bonds. if you're trying to have investors have more confidence with regard to other european nations, they need to be able to hedge those bets. looking at the gross and net exposure, they need to know that the hejdges are going to work. >> it really means higher
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interest rates for government boroing. if a holder of that debt cannot hedge that exposure, on the front end i'm going to charge higher interest rates. if the cds market fell apart, there was commentary that in fact regular taxpayers would pay higher interest rates to borrow. >> yeah. just to move on. can i get your thoughts, guys, on the housing market? see the home building stocks at a new high today. credit suisse had a big note out. they've been talking to their people coming through, taking surveys. the numbers are much higher than expected. it looks like the preliminary numbers indicate 30% to 40% increase in the orders we're seeing. that's a new high right here. >> bob, i think the answer is as follows. what is your chance of getting a mortgage if you don't have a job. >> zero. >> there are now 2 million more people in the past year who have jobs. not all of them obviously are full-time jobs and not all of them are terrifically paying jobs, but they have jobs and have the ability to get a mortgage. to the extent the jobs market comes back, there's been all this commentary about --
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>> it's not that easy to get a mortgage even with a job. >> i agree, maria. but my point at the beginning is, there's no game on if you don't have a job to begin with. >> there could be an effect for demand pulling back a little bit. certainly a good sign. >> does it strike you as too optimistic here? the total amount of inventory that's out there, doesn't tell me that there's going to be building and selling a whole lot of in you homes. >> i see a lot -- yes. number one, foreclosures, too high. i do see mortgage applications still very tough. and even the appraisals are a tough time. yes, but let me tell you something, these stocks can go a lot higher, because their market participants are still on the sideline. a lot of people can still come into the market. >> thanks, everybody. we'll check in with you later. >> thanks, guys. how the bond markets are digesting these greek headlines. rick, i still see yields up a
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little bit here today. >> absolutely. you know what, bob, i liked your summary. the numbers aren't large, but everybody's still going to be perusing the weekend periodicals and blogs and websites to see if any specific institutions, especially the likes of french banks, see if there's any fallout there. but the markets usually sniff these things early. we've hardly had any movement related to the headlines that came out a short time ago about the actual event being triggered. there's always a lot of smirks on the floor, bob. you see them, too. of course, it's a credit event. but the cdss aren't necessarily a logical product. there are a lot of bylaws and rules and committees. the rule of law with regard to how various covenants and issues were changed, all of this is going to loom large for a long time. but in terms of the markets, in front of a weekend, normally always a more volatile, questionable, anxiety-filled kind of timeline, especially
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with both loads of data next week, bob, and 66 billion in supply and a fed meeting. i think the markets have taken it in stride. the worst performer on the week were 30-year bonds, yields up just shy of ten basis points on the week. but only a couple of basis points on the day. back to you. >> thank you so much, rick santelli. we'll be getting more reaction to the news out of greece in just a moment. let's look at what's moving in the final hour of trading. just about 50 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the week. >> i know that you've given a lot of coverage of greece. i'll tell you about the other things that have been going on in the market today. of course, we had our best two-day run in nearly three months yesterday. today would have made it three. we pared some of our gains or that greek news. a new trading range with the s&p. some are saying that if we can keep on building on this news on the economy, maybe we can push
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towards the 1400 mark. of course, we got the better than expected jobs report, which is certainly one of the reasons we're moving higher today. i had a look at what kinds of stocks would benefit from more jobs out there in the u.s. economy. well, online employment agency monster worldwide is certainly one of them, up nearly 5%. others would include manpower, and also true blue, as you can see, putting on decent gains today. i want to tell you about shares of script. they're also moving higher today on a "wall street journal" report that the ftc is increasingly unlikely to block their $29 billion merger. sources saying that the ftc still had some concerns about the deal and may still impose some conditions on the merger. and of course, we wanted to hear exactly what those conditions would be. and that would naturally affect the stock prices as well. here's a real disaster du jour, coffee roasters plunging today by over 15%.
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there are fears it may lose what is essentially a new monopoly in the single-cup coffee market. starbucks, which, of course, is gaining, has given us an outline for their plans to launch a rival coffee machine. how much overlap there would be is still up for debate. but at face value it looks like the market is saying this is not good news for green mountain. check out carnival as well. the world's largest cruise operator. we all know about the casta concordia disaster. they significantly cut back on their fiscal profit and revenue forecast. just to finish on a little note of history for you, maria. exactly three years ago today, the s&p 500 posted a 12-year closing low, 676 during the height of the financial crisis. what mark haines haines called the bottom. we're sitting now at 1370. back over to you. >> thank you, mandy. >> 50 minutes to go before the
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closing bell. dow jones industrial average off of its highs today. but still up on the week. coming up, as expected, greece is officially in default. some are wondering if another european nation could be next. we'll discuss this with the man behind today's greek default decision, the head of the isda. and after the bell, noted economist, put your helmets on, giving maria his reaction to the news and why he's still bearish about the global economy. >> the most heavily traded stocks at the new york stock exchange. you're watching the "closing bell" on cnbc, the first in business worldwide. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future. how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the f a leader in retirement planning.
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45 minutes until the closing bell sounds for the day, and the week. the dow on track for the first three-day winning streak in two and a half weeks. how long this morning's february jobs report. look at where we stand here. well off of the highs of the day as we approach the final
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stretch. up about ten points on the dow industrials, having sold off from earlier highs of 61 points. that was, as you can see in that chart, just about 11:00 a.m. this morning. look at some of the big gainers, jpmorgan chase, stronger financial services sector, dupont as well as intel, cisco and alcoa all in the boost for the dow. >> greece officially defaulting as expected. the isda announcing that greece's restructuring has triggered a credit event. as you know, this threatens the credibility of the overall sovereign cds market. let's get more on the story from chief executive robert pickle. thanks very much for joining us. your overall reaction here to the declaration you essentially made, give us some guidance of where we go from here. >> sure. i think what we've decided today is something we had anticipated for quite a while. as the greeks and their investors went through this discussion of exchange in these
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bonds. it was really only when the formal offer was made two weeks ago with the inclusion of the collective action clauses that we thought we would be moving towards a determination that there was a credit event in the contracts between the two parties that utilized these cdss. this is very much in many ways an expected result today. but we needed to go through the process as required by the terms of the contract and as required by the law in greece before we could formally make that determination. >> mr. pickel, let's go through where we go from here, march 19th is the expected option. how are you expecting that to play out? >> well, the determinations committee will continue -- in fact, we'll meet again on monday where they will further consider the obligations that will be priced in that auction. now, of course, it's a little bit complicated in this situation with the restructuring, because certain obligations by virtue of this collective action clause will effect lifl go away. we need to look at the bonds
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that are out there, or potentially the package that has been offered as an exchange. so it could be the international governing bonds, which have not been subject to a collective action clause yet. it could be the new bonds that are received in exchange. or it could potentially even be the package. that's something that the determinations committee will consider over the course of the day on monday. >> is it fair to say that greece's defaulting? >> for our purposes, what we determined is in these contracts between two parties, this determinations committee, decides whether the so-called credit events are triggered by the facts and circumstances as applied to the contractual terms. that's what we've determined. yes, obviously, it is in a situation where there's been a deterioration of the creditworthiness of the reference entity, in this case, greece, people will read that as tantamount to a default. but what our real focus is on the terms of the contract. and making sure that the parties who entered into these contracts
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can get the benefit of their bargain. >> mr. pickel, what about the 4% or so that are not drawn into this, or not forced in, or didn't vote for it? i know you didn't represent a lot of that group, but can you just talk to us? because a lot of people are wondering, is this going to be some kind of cloud? will greece be able to pay them off? what strategies are available here? >> you know, i think that's really a question best directed to the greek government. whether they intend to pay those off. what's important, though, is any of those 4% that have not tendered into this auction, or tendered into this exchange, will get the benefit of any cds that they have outstanding. because we'll move forward with an auction on all obligations. once there's a credit event that's triggered, it's more general as to the reference entity. anybody who holds any of those bonds, and has credit default swap protection, will be able to be made whole on their cds. and then they just have to pursue whatever their revenues may be against the greek government on the underlying
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debt. >> what do you think this tells us about the other sovereigns out there, in terms of the credibility of the cdss of the likes of spain, portugal, italy, et cetera? >> i think when people enter into these contracts, you know, sovereign issues are always quite different from corporate issues. you're dealing with an obligor who actually has the power in many cases to change the underlying terms of the contract. now, there's been much more of a movement towards having international law, governing bond issues by sovereigns, and also to include collective action clauses up front. so there's much more of an established process. what we saw here is a circumstance where greece collected the collective action clauses after the fact and subsequently triggered them. that's quite different certainly from the normal corporate situation, and even many sovereign situations as well. >> is $3 billion the total outstanding? >> that is the total net
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outstanding as we know from the information that's been reported for several years by the depository trust and clearing corporation. it's important to keep in mind when we first started talking about this seriously last summer, it was in excess of $5 billion net. but through processes that the industry has established to tear up trades, compress outstanding activity, we've actually seen that number obviously go down to $3.2 billion. and we expect that following the option on march 19th, that this will all settle in a very orderly manner. >> mr. pickel can you step back a little bit and give us a 10,000-foot view from here? this is the first major default since world war ii of a sovereign country. what have you learned from this whole process? what should we all have taken away from this? can you step back a little bit for us? >> i guess we hearken back always -- what we've done over the last 25 years or more, have put in place documentation to gorv many different types of
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transactions, and so the first place to -- the first and last place really to stop are the definitions, the terms of the contract. and understand, you know, what those terms are, and understand what the facts are as applied to those terms. and i think that's what we've certainly been talking about for the past, almost nine months. look at the contract, understand the terms. it's not the -- it's not the question of how much an obligation may be written down, it's a question of, is it binding on all holders in the case of a restructuring or failure to pay? has there been a failure to pay. of course, there's not been that as of yet. but there was imminently going -- that was going to happen on march 20th, but for this restructuring. >> let's talk more about that. as one of our colleagues mentioned earlier, it's not necessarily just this next march 20th deadline that we're looking at in terms of greece, but the following payouts. and making the payments there. are you expecting that we will
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see further defaults? >> really hard to say. you know, i think people -- other sovereigns may observe this situation and consider whether to the extent they have laws governed by their own domestic -- bonds governed by their own domestic law, that they should look at including these collective action clauses to try to restructure on a, quote unquote, voluntary basis. we'll just have to see how that develops. what's important to us, we follow the terms of the contract. we've gotten to this point in time that based on the facts and circumstances and based on the underlying document, we've gotten to the conclusion that i think we at least, and i think virtually all the market participants, fully expected to happen. >> what do you say to countries that are considering collective action clauses? what advice would you give them? >> i would give -- my advice would be that, creditors are part of the fabric of the credit markets these days. and i would urge them to be
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mindful of that. and i wouldn't be concerned about -- earlier on, there was a lot of concern about we shouldn't trigger the cds. in fact, make your decisions in a way that make sense for the country, and allow the cds market to function as it is intended to do and don't do end runs around the cds market. >> mr. pickel, thank you very much for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> robert pickel joining us, isda. we're in the final stretch of trading for the work. >> essentially, flat on the week for the s&p 500. fractional gains earlier on. we'll have more on the greek stor any a few moments. but the three-year anniversary of the march 9th lows, we're turning the clock back further to 1987. find out 2012 could be looking a lot like 1987 and why it may be a good thing for stock market investors. we'll be back in just a moment. life moves fast.
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in the final stretch of trading for the day, and the week. we have seen a lot of volatility
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this week. the s&p 500 still on track for its best start in 20 years, actually. according to our next guest, if history is any indication, it could be the start of something bigger. let's get with barry sims. good to see you. thank you for joining us. >> good to see you, maria. >> you want to look at 1987 '88 versus 2011-2012. >> what we're talking about here, this is an election year, obviously. elections are important for markets. we looked at all the elections back over the last 30 years, and this election cycle is shaping up very much like what we saw in the '87-'88 time frame. we started the year, we had a big correction mid-year. a very volatile year. we started the year where we started uks only a 2% gain. pre-election years are generally the best in the four-year election cycle. >> so what happens right here? >> so this was obviously the 1987 market crash. >> okay. >> and obviously, we're going to get to 2011, we saw a similar
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type of market activity. where we saw a significant market correction in 2011, and the year's quite volatile. but we end 2011 where we started 2011. >> i see. and your year-end target on the s&p 500 is what? >> 1510. that implies 20% rally for this year. one of the reasons, as you alluded to, we started 1988 up 8%. this year we started up the first two months 8%. 1988 was a great year for stocks. we believe this year will be very good. >> and you think that the election's going to be a catalyst? >> i think the election is what's moving the market right now. i think the markets like what they're seeing in the election unfolding so far. >> barry, great to have you on the program. terrific insights, as always. bob, over to you. >> still ahead, two market veterans weigh in on the risks and rewards of investing in china right now. how could you protect yourself from a slowdown in china. we'll look at the investment
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angle. that's next. speaking of which, maria will get reaction from an analyst about greek's developments. we'll be back in just a moment.
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the market moving on news that greece has defaulted earlier this hour. the ceo told us it may force other sovereigns to look at their collective action clauses on their bonds. >> how it impacts your portfolio with david darst. and jeff rosenberg. gentlemen, good to have you on the program. >> nice to be here. >> your thoughts on this credit event that was triggered as a result of the news out of greece? >> well, you know, i think the market may be taking more out of this event than there really is. the expectation has long been that greece would use its collective action clauses and that would be a triggering event for the cds. this is really what the market was expecting, so i think we're
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making a little bit of a -- too much out of this. >> yet, david, the market did react, even equities reacting. do you feel more confident now that the eurozone crisis is not going to spill onto the united states post these headlines? >> great point, maria. i think you want to watch the three ps, portugals, those yields are up 14%. let's hope portugal can move without having to go to this default situation, or credit event situation. secondly is profits. those profit estimates have begun to start to edge downward. the consensus estimates. morgan stanley looking for 3% this year, 3% next year. so we want to see those stabilize. we want to see that. and thirdly is property prices. had good jobs this morning. but the property prices are still under pressure. the latest case shiller price index. p, p, p, profits, portugal and property. >> what we see here is china's going to have a soft landing.
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u.s. economy is improving. and europe at least they're trying to contain the prices somewhat. where does this leave us in terms of stock? >> europe is in containment mode. emerging markets are in slowing mode. the strength in economy as we saw in the employment report is really out of the u.s. i think what this means is a rotation into the united states. i think it's good for risk assets and good for the u.s. market as well. >> are you looking for a rotation into the atmosphere as well? >> oracle and apple we talked about 200 points ago. yes, we like the technology. get the cheap u.s. stocks that have sales into the global emerging markets. which are growing faster than the u.s. they aren't slowing. but if china is looking at 7 1/2, we're looking at 2 for u.s. this year. you want to get u.s. companies that sell cheaply into these emerging markets. that's where we would be. >> jeff, let me ask you about
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what's going on in fixed income right here. obviously we're talking about the record low rates every day. where are you getting yield? >> where you're not getting yield is in the record low rates. so you've got to get out of treasuries, you've got to get out of interest rate risk. where you're going to get yield is going to corporate america and investing in the companies that issue debt, both high grade and high yield. both in the u.s. as well as globally. we're taking credit risk and not taking interest rate risk. we sill like that today. >> corporate bonds. >> corporate bonds will be one of our favorite segments. high yield as well as investment grade in this environment. >> all right. in terms of the united states corporate bonds, or outside the u.s., where are your favorite hot spots? >> given the strengths of the balance sheets that we see, and the relative pricing, we still favor u.s. high yield. whether emerging opportunities, emerging markets. you're starting to see opportunities, both in emerging markets sovereign debt as well as corporate debt.
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u.s. high yield is still the focus. >> we'll leave it there. jeff, good to see you. david, thank you so much. we'll see you at 4:00 as well. we'll have more reaction to today's developments out of greece. find out what it means for your money. bob? >> a big week for apple. after the company finally announced des about its highly anticipated new ipad tablet computer. according to one of our guests you should be keeping your eyes on another tech giant. >> why one investor set his sights on microsoft. why he thinks one of the latest products could be a real game changer for the company and the stock price. back in a moment. r told me i have an irregular heartbeat, and that it put me at 5-times greater risk of a stroke. i was worried. i worried about my wife, and my family. bill has the most common type of atrial fibrillation, or afib. it's not caused by a heart valve problem. he was taking warfarin, but i've put him on pradaxa instead. in a clinical trial, pradaxa 150 mgs reduced stroke risk 35%
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welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm courtney reagan at the nasdaq. a little coffee war brewing here. starbucks will serve a single-serving coffee machine this fall. getting a downgrade from bank of
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america merrill lynch for green mountain. dunkin brands a little higher. better than expected earnings and getting an upgrade, and a nice little two-day pop. greece's default impacting the markets in the final hours of trading here. dan greenhouse said the reaction in the equity market is overdone. he joins us along with steve from webb bush securities. good to have you on the program. thank you so much for joining us. dan, let me kick this off with you. tell me why you think this is an overreaction? >> it's a headline we all knew was coming. there was nobody under any illusions this was not a default in name only -- in anything but name. i was just a little surprised to see the market take it as poorly as it did. although admittedly as you noted, it bounced back fairly quickly. >> what do you think happens from here? obviously now this is a default. do you worry about the credibility of the other sovereigns in the region? >> well, i mean, it all depends
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on whether or not you honor the cds market. i think in the case of portugal, there's about $5 billion in net cds outstanding in the case of ireland, about $4 billion. it's similarly small. and i think really what it boils down to is whether or not ultimately cds proved to be a worthwhile asset. in the case of greece, it may well be. >> i think it was a careful ri crafted train wreck. they did a great job of coordinating everything. there is only $4 billion of cds triggered. that's not going to have a big impact. they did a good job of coordinating everything down to the last detail. how good are your cdss, like the previous speaker pointed out. i think what you've got is insurance against the fender bender. but if it's a major car wreck, those cdss may be deemed not good. >> what kind of a dent does this make, steve, in greece's
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problems? >> none. i don't think it does greece for one way or another. the real test in greece is when we have an election. and someone runs on the platform, to heck with all this, let's pull out of the euro, let's go walk away from the latest stat. if somebody runs with that platform and wins, that's going to be a real problem. >> i think i agree with the concept that greece still faces significant hurdles and will surely need money over the next three years. but we can't really say reducing their debt burden by 100 billion euro or so has made no difference whatsoever. it does make a difference. but they have to pay back 100 billion less in debt. but we can't say it doesn't matter. >> i think the greater issue here isn't so much, yes, no question the debt's been reduced, but it's the loss of sovereignty that's an issue. if you listen to nigel ferage
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and saying greece lost control of their own government finances, and if the greek people rise up and take that back in an upcoming election, i mean, how good is this deal. and at 50%, that reduction leaves a lot of pain and suffering in greece. how long are they going to live with it. >> real quick, both of you, how do you invest now, given what we know. would you be poised to start looking for opportunities in the eurozone or not? dan? >> well, listen, europe in general is trading more cheaply than the united states. year-to-date some of the markets over there, in germany, have outperformed. we've gotten some of problems behind us and you could probably find additional investment areas, yes. >> steve, what do you think? >> i think there are a lot of stocks in europe that could have a yield. businesses are okay, but yielding 8%, 11%, i put a bet of those on and cover that with a hedge by saying be short the euro. some of the yields in europe have gotten a little too high.
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utilities, some of the companies that have steady revenue streams, they seem cheap to me. >> let me end real quick by saying we still have the greek and french elections coming up, which are uncertain variables that will affect it. >> i agree with that. >> very good point. actually, we're going to have new leadership all over the world. new leadership in russia, obviously. new leadership in china coming. and now you've got the election in france. then next year the election in germany. who knows about the united states later this year. lots of change globally. gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us. we appreciate it, and we'll see you soon. we're in the final stretch of trading. about ten minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street. a market is fractionally moving here, bob. coming off the highs of earlier today. >> on the week, small, but still a gain. we spoke to our guests about china. later on in the "closing bell," we'll set our sights on brazil and the best ways you can invest your money in the red-hot region
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of the world. >> talking to noted economist nouriel roubini, and i'll ask him why he's so bearish on the global economy. 20 pages. boom! the other office devices? they don't get me. they're all like, "hey, brother, doesn't it bother you that no one notices you?" and i'm like, "doesn't it bother you you're not reliable?" and they say, "shut up!" and i'm like, "you shut up." in business, it's all about reliability. 'cause these guys aren't just hitting "print." they're hitting "dream." so that's what i do.
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welcome back. i'm coming to you right now from the post of matador resources on the floor of the new york stock exchange. right from the post. a small cap stock, $12 a share here at the nyse last month. gaining ground today but still below the ipo price. matador is a dallas-based energy company involved in exploration development of oil and natural gas. let's take a look at the stock here. we see the post at $11.57 a share on matador right there. a tough year for nat gas, of course, hovering near ten-year lows. winter temperatures stay mild. the stock today as you can see up about 3.5%. i'm joined right now by the ceo, joe. you're ringing the closing bell today. >> yes, maria. >> good to see you. we're doing a lot on oil and gas recently. what has been the impact from
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your standpoint of the move in prices? >> from the oil price standpoint, that's opened up a lot of opportunities. it's the best set of opportunities i've seen in 30 years. >> where is the demand coming from right now? >> i think the demand is coming from the transportation sector. >> and do you expect that to continue in 2012? tell me your vision in terms of where the business comes from this year. >> well, i think transportation will continue to be strong. but i'd like to see the economy rebound more. so that it will pick it up from the industrial use, too. >> still, i guess tough times out there. good to have you on the program. thank you so much. we'll be watching you when you ring that closing bell in just a few minutes. >> it's been great to be with you. i would like to note, matador is going to be 80% in oil revenue this year. >> thank you very much for noting that. we appreciate it. ceo of matador, where he will be ringing the closing bell in just a few moments. >> the launch of apple's new
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ipad stole the spotlight in tech this week. but our next guest is still keeping a close eye on microsoft's latest product. which he says could be a game changer for that stock. brian studland from the stut land volatility group. brian? >> i am really expecting microsoft to be a game changer, as it releases its windows 8. i talked to beta testers. they said it's a little cumbersome to use the desktop version, and i can see why. they like the application of the software. i want to own microsoft here at $32. if i play it to the upside, i'll use options to continue to lower my cost of oeng this stock by selling a may 34 call for 40 cents. at the same time i'll sell a may 29 put for 35 cents. net between the two option trades, i take in 75 cents. that's mine to keep. i'm called away above 34. but i make a nice 8.5% return on my money. the down side is i get below 29 because i'm obligated to
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purchase more stock there. over five years, the stock has broken above 30. it could push to the 2007 highs around 36, 37. a great way to play to the upside on microsoft and continue to play their operating system. hopefully things go well when they come to launching it. >> and be sure to catch more options action tonight at 5:00 p.m. followed by "money in motion," currency trading, at 5:30. up next, we're coming right back with the closing "countdown." after the bell, keep it here. maria's special interview, nouriel roubini will be right here to get his global forecast in the 4:00 p.m. hour of the "closing bell."
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welcome back. bob pisani down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. small gains on the day.
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really small gains on the week. unchanged on the s&p 500. the big day today, of course, nonfarm payrolls, the 8:30 jobs report, look at the dollar index spiking on the upside. normally you would see the euro go to the downside, and that's exactly what happened. these are interday charts. rest of the market held up very well. generally we had material stocks hold up very well. on days like today, typically that doesn't happen. the volatility index, there it is. here's the whole week. essentially we're largely unchanged, despite the big spikeup we saw on tuesday on concerns about some slowing global growth. markets didn't react very well to the gdp. cooler heads prevailed and realized that's going to be a soft landing for china. they'll likely have something close to an 8 or 9 handle. bottom line, it's been a fairly good week overall. china soft landing, europe, recession, yes, but contained. and u.s. economic improvement. those themes are still very much
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intact. david is here to talk about that. >> love your tie today. >> it looks like we're both running for president or something like that. but you have the handkerchief that you always have. you always look better than me. annoying, david. you're still optimistic about the markets. >> we deal on the short-term basis. the markets don't change when fundamentals change. markets change when beliefs change. you pointed out china's soft landing, also the no-lehman style crisis in europe. those every the big things. you had the jobs numbers. you've had the consumer confidence numbers. automobile sales have come in very nicely. so there's been a better tone to the market. we think, however, profits are going to be up very, very anemically this year, 3% in the u.s. and first quarter gdp coming in at 1%. a big slowdown. >> what about in the back half of the year? we know earnings growth is back end loaded. some people are expecting 6%
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earnings in the s&p. can they make it up on the back end? >> 2.4% is our forecast now. again, a deceleration versus this year's fourth quarter which has been pretty strong. it will be slower than that. europe is slowing. it is in a recession type of environment. >> is it a contained recession? is it fractional declines or is it going to be a real serious decline? are we talking about gdp growth? >> excellent point. >> 2%, 3% in the eurozone? >> no, 1%. half a percent to a percent, bob. that could affect the profits of the big multinationals. that could put pressure on the profit forecast and we think we're not out of the woods. greece, portugal, spain, i'm very, very happy to see spain is down, italy is down. spain is at about 505. >> is there any success, just ten


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